Historically, the winner of Iowa has not won the nomination. in fact, in 2008, Huckabee won the state but at the convention, every single delegate he “won” voted for McCain. So, what does this mean?
Well, instead of the winner, the most important factor is who does better than expected and who does worse than expected. This is a battle for favorable press time and momentum. So…
Going into this caucus, Santorum and Paul have a lot of momentum. Romney has negative. This means the first two might do better than expected with Santorum probably doing the best and Romney doing worse than expected though not necessarily get 3rd.
Anyways, this still doesn’t change my nomination projection of Romney. But I do think Santorum has a good chance at taking Iowa.
What I want is to make this process as long as possible to hurt their field the most. So I really do want Romney to do poorly as well as anyone but Romney to win the nomination.